Too Early to Say
Independent applied economics research. AI-augmented analysis with full methodology transparency.
Latest Research
Policy-relevant findings with reproducible methods
What 227 Million Rows of Medicaid Data Can and Can't Tell Us
HHS published the largest Medicaid dataset in history. Here's what it contains, what's missing, and why the gap matters for fraud screening.
The Data We Forgot We Had: A Tagging System for Research Serendipity
How question-first tagging turns dormant datasets into discoverable assets. Tag data by the questions it can answer, not just what it contains.
The Unfunded Mandate: How Federal Promises Shape School Budgets
When Congress passed IDEA, they promised to fund 40% of special education costs. They've never come close. The actual number hovers around 15%.
Better Access, Higher Vulnerability: What 9,033 California Tracts Reveal
The USDA's food desert framework assumes distance to grocery stores is a primary barrier. Our analysis suggests the most vulnerable communities already have closer stores.
The Special Education Spending Puzzle
Some California school districts have substantially more money than others. Yet they all spend roughly similar shares on special education.
Renters vs. Owners: Housing Tenure and Grocery Access
Renter-dominated tracts have better grocery access: shorter distances, lower food desert rates. But renters have higher vulnerability despite better access.
Why SNAP Participation Varies So Much Across Counties
Counties with similar poverty rates have vastly different SNAP enrollment. Administrative barriers, not need, may explain the gap.
Analysis Spotlight
In-depth look at our research and methods
Screening for Medicaid Fraud with Public Data
HHS released 227 million rows of Medicaid billing data. Within hours, amateur analysts claimed to find billions in fraud. We walk through what the data can actually support.
On February 13, HHS published what it called "the largest Medicaid dataset in department history." A former DOGE affiliate claimed fraud would be "easy to identify." Within hours, cryptocurrency commentators reported $90 billion in fraud from scanning 0.16% of providers. The Maine apartments they flagged are home addresses of autism therapists. The 184 providers at one Minneapolis address are technicians at an ABA therapy center.
Open-sourced data needs open-sourced methods.
Research by Topic
Browse by subject area
Food Security
Food access, SNAP enrollment, grocery store distribution, and the complex relationship between geography and food insecurity.
Transit Equity
How transit access shapes economic opportunity. Mobility deserts, accessibility measurement, and transportation barriers.
Education Policy
School funding, special education budgets, and how districts respond to fiscal constraints and stimulus funding.
AI-Integrated Methodology
How we do research: data validation, transit routing, API collection, and AI-integrated workflows with code examples.
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