Founder · Too Early To Say

Victoria Cholette, applied economist

She studies how AI changes the work of economists and policy teams, combining causal inference, public data, and software testing to keep every step of a faster workflow checkable.

Too Early To Say is an independent research project. The site publishes policy findings, known-truth econometric cases, open methods, and a public queue of contributions still under validation.

Does AI move the real cost of policy research from running the analysis to specifying it, checking it, and judging what it means?

Victoria Cholette, applied economist

Background

PhD in Managerial Science and Applied Economics from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

The research practice

Three fields meet in the work: policy applications set the stakes, econometrics brings the identification discipline, and software engineering adds the tests, assertions, versioned artifacts, and failure gates that probabilistic tools need.

AI and evidence production

Measure the research work

Evidence on productivity, error, review, and skill.

Difference-in-differences in Python plants an effect of 1.60 and catches a clean regression that answers the wrong comparison.

Agents: implement and rerun. Researcher: defines the estimand, answer key, and failure rule.

Policy applications

Keep the decision attached

Findings with traceable data, methods, and limits.

The Food Desert Myth records a published 4.7-fold comparison now under reconciliation across the article, data, and public materials.

Agents: assemble and reconcile. Researcher: defends the comparison and interprets the policy claim.

Open infrastructure

Make clean-looking failure visible

Reusable tests for econometric and workflow claims.

Instrumental Variables in Python pairs an F-statistic of 2,051 with a causally invalid estimate when exclusion fails.

Agents: execute diagnostics. Researcher: defines the data-generating process and release standard.

Experience and collaboration

The work spans academic research, public-health practice, applied econometrics, and open research infrastructure.

Current practice

Senior Health Economist at the Santa Clara County Department of Public Health and visiting faculty at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health.

Research training

Doctoral work spanning health, education, public finance, and social policy.

Field building

Co-founder of the California Association of Public Health Economists and recipient of the APPAM 40 for 40 Fellowship.

Victoria Cholette

Ways to work together

Research partners can contribute policy cases, external replications, domain adjudication, or institutional settings for measuring what AI-assisted evidence production costs.

The analyses on Too Early To Say represent personal research interests and do not reflect any employer or affiliated institution.

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