Too Early to Say
Independent applied economics research. AI-augmented analysis with full methodology transparency.
Latest Research
Policy-relevant findings with reproducible methods
r5py Tutorial: 2.7 Million Transit Routes for $0 in Python
Commercial transit APIs charge per query. We used r5py, GTFS, and OpenStreetMap to calculate 2.7 million travel times without paying a cent.
How to Estimate Difference-in-Differences in Python
A statsmodels workflow for event study estimation, with the diagnostics that separate credible estimates from noise.
How to Build a Classifier When 94% Accuracy Means Nothing
A scikit-learn workflow for imbalanced classification, with the evaluation metrics that actually matter.
How to Interpret a Classifier with SHAP Values
A Python workflow for understanding what drives model predictions, and what SHAP importance actually measures.
How to Build a Census Data Pipeline That Doesn't Silently Fail
A Python workflow for pulling ACS data from the Census API, including the validation checks that prevent bad data from reaching the analysis.
How to Validate GTFS Feeds Before They Break the Routing Engine
A Python workflow for catching the transit data problems that structural checks miss. Six validation layers from download fallbacks to smoke tests.
Spatial Analysis with GeoPandas: From Joins to Autocorrelation
A spatial analysis workflow from point-to-polygon joins through spatial weights, Moran's I, and LISA cluster detection.
Analysis Spotlight
In-depth look at our research and methods
Screening for Medicaid Fraud with Public Data
HHS released 227 million rows of Medicaid billing data. Within hours, amateur analysts claimed to find billions in fraud. We walk through what the data can actually support.
On February 13, HHS published what it called "the largest Medicaid dataset in department history." A former DOGE affiliate claimed fraud would be "easy to identify." Within hours, cryptocurrency commentators reported $90 billion in fraud from scanning 0.16% of providers. The Maine apartments they flagged are home addresses of autism therapists. The 184 providers at one Minneapolis address are technicians at an ABA therapy center.
Open-sourced data needs open-sourced methods.
Research by Topic
Browse by subject area
AI-Integrated Methodology
How we do research: data validation, transit routing, API collection, and AI-integrated workflows with code examples.
Open-Source Methods
Tutorials for researchers transitioning from licensed software to Python, GeoPandas, and statsmodels.
Food Security
Food access, SNAP enrollment, grocery store distribution, and the complex relationship between geography and food insecurity.
Transit Equity
How transit access shapes economic opportunity. Mobility deserts, accessibility measurement, and transportation barriers.
Education Policy
School funding, special education budgets, and how districts respond to fiscal constraints and stimulus funding.
Health Policy
Healthcare spending, Medicaid program integrity, and evidence-based policy evaluation using public administrative data.
Don't Miss New Research
Weekly analysis delivered to your inbox. Rigorous methods, actionable findings, full transparency.
Subscribe for Free