{ "schema_version": "1.0", "title": "Too Early To Say public claim manifest", "description": "A public inventory of selected claims, their source trail, available materials, verification state, and known limits.", "public_surfaces_note": "Each claim lists selected pages that promote or contextualize it; this field is not an exhaustive inventory of every incidental mention.", "last_updated": "2026-07-21", "run_records": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/evidence/outputs/known-truth-run-record.json" ], "status_definitions": { "material_status": { "runnable-package": "A public package includes the code and instructions needed to run the case.", "supporting-code": "Public code covers part of the analysis, but the published result is not committed as a reproducible output.", "article-only": "The article documents the result, but no public package currently derives the exact claim.", "under-reconciliation": "The claim and its public materials are being reconciled before they are presented as reproducible evidence." }, "verification_status": { "published-case": "The case is published with a public implementation and a stated expected result.", "fresh-run-matched": "A fresh isolated run matched the recorded output values.", "release-record-pending": "Runnable code is public, but a frozen output record has not yet been committed.", "article-published": "The claim appears in a published article but has not cleared a public package check.", "not-reproduced": "Supporting code exists, but the published number is not available as a committed reproducible result.", "under-reconciliation": "Conflicting public surfaces or missing provenance prevent a verification claim." } }, "claims": [ { "id": "dml-planted-truth", "claim": "Cross-fitted double machine learning recovers 0.965 in the planted-truth simulation.", "display_value": "0.965", "population": "Simulated observations from a partially linear model", "geography": "Not applicable: simulation", "period": "Not applicable: fixed-seed Monte Carlo design", "data_sources": [ "Simulated data generated by the public package" ], "method": "Cross-fitted double machine learning with Monte Carlo verification", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/validate-double-ml/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/validate-double-ml/" ], "material_status": "runnable-package", "artifact_url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa/validate-double-ml", "artifact_commit": "ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa", "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "The verification routine reports a cross-fitted mean of 0.965 and a passing planted-truth check.", "verification_status": "release-record-pending", "limitation": "The planted-truth check cannot detect a confounder omitted from the controls.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "did-staggered-adoption", "claim": "Group-time difference-in-differences recovers the planted average effect of 1.60.", "display_value": "1.60", "population": "Simulated panel with early, late, and never-treated cohorts", "geography": "Not applicable: simulation", "period": "Not applicable: fixed-seed panel design", "data_sources": [ "Simulated panel generated by the public package" ], "method": "Group-time difference-in-differences with clean controls", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/difference-in-differences-python/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/about/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/difference-in-differences-python/" ], "material_status": "runnable-package", "artifact_url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa/difference-in-differences-python", "artifact_commit": "ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa", "output_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/evidence/outputs/difference-in-differences-python-results.json", "output_sha256": "6b4950a95e24ed68bcaa1c47b21c536eebd22d62231e053caab895b6d7839aa6", "run_record_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/evidence/outputs/known-truth-run-record.json", "expected_output": "The site-hosted frozen snapshot records recovery of the planted average effect by the group-time estimator.", "verification_status": "fresh-run-matched", "limitation": "The planted design does not establish parallel trends or rule out anticipation in observed policy data.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "iv-exclusion-restriction", "claim": "A direct path from the instrument biases the 2SLS estimate to 2.62.", "display_value": "2.62", "population": "Simulated observations with an exclusion-restriction violation", "geography": "Not applicable: simulation", "period": "Not applicable: fixed-seed Monte Carlo design", "data_sources": [ "Simulated data generated by the public package" ], "method": "Just-identified two-stage least squares with an exclusion-violation test", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/instrumental-variables-python/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/instrumental-variables-python/" ], "material_status": "runnable-package", "artifact_url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa/instrumental-variables-python", "artifact_commit": "ab78dd2a2ebbda0556314170554f5f11ab6422fa", "output_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/evidence/outputs/instrumental-variables-python-results.json", "output_sha256": "73b331a56e1d5e48e1dee5f6819ba7409e777284a761d1a630e57a6d8a6f3d71", "run_record_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/evidence/outputs/known-truth-run-record.json", "expected_output": "The site-hosted frozen snapshot records a biased 2SLS estimate in the exclusion-violation case.", "verification_status": "fresh-run-matched", "limitation": "First-stage diagnostics cannot test whether the instrument has a direct path to the outcome.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "transit-mobility-desert-rate", "claim": "The article reports that 12% of California residential tracts are mobility deserts; the rate and tract population are under reconciliation.", "display_value": "12%", "population": "California residential census tracts", "geography": "California", "period": "Transit inputs described as 2024 data in the article; exact extract under reconciliation", "data_sources": [ "Cal-ITP transit extract with conflicting raw and unique labels", "Census tract boundaries and joined tract population under reconciliation", "Grocery location input described in the articles" ], "method": "Rule-based tract classification using grocery proximity and transit access", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/transit-equity/data-quality-49-to-12/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/transit-equity/data-quality-49-to-12/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/transit-equity/hidden-mobility-deserts/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/transit-equity/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/glossary/" ], "material_status": "under-reconciliation", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "related_material": { "url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/3c338ae2e0aff91a33530109b8de8288c4870017/mobility-deserts", "note": "The pinned folder labels 64,060 records as raw and reports roughly 24,000 unique records, while the articles previously labeled 64,060 as deduplicated. It is related material, not a verified evidence artifact." }, "expected_output": "A committed processed output should derive one documented raw-to-unique stop inventory, tract population, and statewide classification table.", "verification_status": "under-reconciliation", "limitation": "The article-reported 1,086-tract count and 12% rate lack a matched output, and the supporting materials still conflict over raw versus unique transit-stop counts.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "statewide-race-food-access-direction", "claim": "Two articles report opposite directions for the minority-tract mobility-desert difference using ostensibly similar statewide inputs.", "display_value": "9.7% vs 16.9%; 13.2% vs 11.1%", "population": "California residential census tracts; conflicting totals of 9,033 and 9,039", "geography": "California", "period": "ACS 2018-2022 on the food-access page and ACS 2019-2023 on the transit-race page; Cal-ITP 2024 and SafeGraph 2023 as described on the pages", "data_sources": [ "American Community Survey", "Cal-ITP GTFS", "SafeGraph grocery locations" ], "method": "Descriptive tract comparison and linear probability models described in the articles", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/food-access-vulnerability-paradox/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/food-access-vulnerability-paradox/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/transit-equity/transit-equity-race/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/glossary/" ], "material_status": "under-reconciliation", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "One documented tract universe and saved comparison table should reproduce the direction and adjusted model from shared inputs.", "verification_status": "under-reconciliation", "limitation": "The pages disagree on tract population, group counts, mobility-desert rates, and substantive direction; no matched public output resolves the conflict.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "food-desert-snap-variation", "claim": "The article reports a 4.7x difference in SNAP participation across selected Santa Clara County tracts.", "display_value": "4.7x", "population": "Selected Santa Clara County census tracts", "geography": "Santa Clara County, California", "period": "Data vintages under reconciliation", "data_sources": [ "Source files described in the article; inventory under reconciliation" ], "method": "Classification and spatial comparison described in the article", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/food-desert-myth/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/about/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/findings/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/glossary/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/extended-vulnerability-index/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/food-desert-myth/" ], "material_status": "under-reconciliation", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "related_material": { "url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/3c338ae2e0aff91a33530109b8de8288c4870017/food-desert-myth", "note": "This folder does not currently derive the published claim and is not designated as its evidence artifact." }, "expected_output": "A public table deriving the reported comparison is not yet available.", "verification_status": "under-reconciliation", "limitation": "Store counts, tract counts, and the linked public package do not yet form one reproducible chain.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "covid-food-access-gap", "claim": "The article reports a 49% change in its SNAP participation gap between vulnerability groups during the pandemic era.", "display_value": "49%", "population": "Santa Clara County census tracts grouped by vulnerability", "geography": "Santa Clara County, California", "period": "2019 to 2023 comparison described in the article", "data_sources": [ "American Community Survey inputs described in the article" ], "method": "Article-described comparison of overlapping ACS five-year SNAP participation estimates across vulnerability groups", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/covid-differential-impact/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/findings/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/covid-differential-impact/" ], "material_status": "article-only", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "No public executable output currently derives the article-reported SNAP participation gap.", "verification_status": "article-published", "limitation": "No executable public analysis or saved result derives the gap. Overlapping ACS five-year vintages limit time attribution, and SNAP participation is not a direct measure of food insecurity.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "working-poor-silicon-valley", "claim": "The working-poor screen identifies 57 Santa Clara County tracts.", "display_value": "57 tracts", "population": "Santa Clara County census tracts", "geography": "Santa Clara County, California", "period": "American Community Survey period described in the article", "data_sources": [ "American Community Survey" ], "method": "Descriptive threshold classification", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/working-poor-silicon-valley/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/findings/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/food-security/working-poor-silicon-valley/" ], "material_status": "supporting-code", "artifact_url": "https://github.com/dphdame/tooearlytosay-analysis/tree/3c338ae2e0aff91a33530109b8de8288c4870017/working-poor-silicon-valley", "artifact_commit": "3c338ae2e0aff91a33530109b8de8288c4870017", "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "The public scripts generate classified tracts, but no committed result records the published count.", "verification_status": "not-reproduced", "limitation": "The package provides code and acquisition instructions without a saved output that matches the article claim.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "leie-license-revocations", "claim": "The article reports that license revocations account for 40% of federal exclusion-list entries.", "display_value": "40%", "population": "Entries in the federal List of Excluded Individuals and Entities", "geography": "United States", "period": "Current exclusion file described in the article", "data_sources": [ "HHS OIG List of Excluded Individuals and Entities" ], "method": "Descriptive exclusion-code audit", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/medicaid-fraud-labels/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/findings/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/medicaid-fraud-labels/" ], "material_status": "article-only", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "No public script or saved table currently derives the reported category share.", "verification_status": "article-published", "limitation": "The adjacent classifier package does not calculate the article's exclusion-category share.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" }, { "id": "school-funding-cliff", "claim": "The article reports an 8.7% one-year decline in California K-12 funding as temporary federal support wound down.", "display_value": "8.7%", "population": "California K-12 funding", "geography": "California", "period": "Final ARRA-funded year as temporary support wound down", "data_sources": [ "California Department of Education budget summaries described in the article" ], "method": "Descriptive year-over-year budget comparison", "article_url": "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/education-policy/stimulus-saved-schools-then-worse/", "public_surfaces": [ "https://tooearlytosay.com/findings/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/methodology/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/glossary/", "https://tooearlytosay.com/research/education-policy/stimulus-saved-schools-then-worse/" ], "material_status": "article-only", "artifact_url": null, "artifact_commit": null, "output_url": null, "output_sha256": null, "run_record_url": null, "expected_output": "No public script or saved table currently derives the published annual change.", "verification_status": "article-published", "limitation": "The public article documents an aggregate budget change, not a causal event-study estimate of the funding cliff.", "last_reviewed": "2026-07-21" } ] }